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識別號0000093687
題名洪水預報模式參數檢定與警戒水位檢討與訂定(2/2)(光碟版)Calibration of Flood Forecasting Model and Review and Establishment of Warning Stages (2/2)
作者
ISBN9789860436921
出版項
台北市 : , 10312
版本項初版
分類號443.61
編號(GPN/EBN)1010302993
委辦計畫編號MOEAWRA1030409
中文摘要颱風、豪雨期間之洪水可能會造成人民生命財產嚴重損失,警戒水位訂定係為加強河防安全管理與提升防汛搶險之效能,因此於各河川重要河段建立預警機制,並提早發布可能洪災訊息,供各縣市政府針對保全對象進行避難、疏散,已屬於非工程防災之重要課題。本署目前於全台灣建置200多處水位站,分佈於中央管河川與中央管區域排水,101年度預定完成152站中央管河川警戒水位公告,其成果已為非工程防災之重要參考依據。台灣河川平均約3-5年即受到洪水侵襲,河床斷面會有明顯改變,加上近年來氣候變遷影響,降雨特性明顯改變,101年度北、中、南部地區均發生每小時降雨超過100mm之強降雨,使得洪水上漲速率有明顯增加趨勢。根據水利法第74條:「主管機關應酌量歷年水勢,決定設防之水位或日期。」因此每年汛期結束後,本署須對該年度流域之水文事件進行評估,作為隔年度警戒水位公告之參考,以符合實際狀況所需。此外為強化各河川局對河川警戒水位檢討與修訂之能力,藉由教育訓練與培訓各河川局訂定警戒水位之專責人員,以落實技術深植目的。本署洪水預報作業系統(FEWS)水文、水理參數內容,降雨逕流部分使用Sobek 軟體之Sacramento模式,該模式參數之率定超滲降雨量計算,包括蒸發散、入滲、滲透、土壤排水等物理機制,共包括17個參數;水理演算部分則有曼寧係數等參數;地文資料部分則包含集水區劃分子集水區數目對逕流量影響等,上述參數選用前已委託學術單位完成檢定與驗證,惟距今已有5年以上時間,考量近年降雨特性改變,且本署易淹水地區水患治理計畫已完成規劃報告,縣管河川或縣管區域排水其水文、地文資料或計畫流量已累積眾多資料可供查閱,洪水預報作業系統參數檢定實有重新辦理必要。另洪水預報作業系統(FEWS)現有水文分析流程中對於預報降雨量分析係使用劇烈大氣監測系統(QPESUMS),該系統可提供全台灣平均每1.69平方公里解析度(1.3km*1.3km)之預報1至3小時預報降雨資訊,而搭配使用QPESUMS網格降雨資料與傳統雨量站進行分析,探討使用不同降雨資料來源、不同空間解析度、不同空間內插方式、與不同集水區邊界條件下,對於水文分析成果之影響性,另銜接不同水文分析模式,透過水文氣象觀測整合平台自動化執行機制,取得流域之流量系集模擬資訊進行研究等,近年本署已委託學術單位進行分析,惟其成果與歷年警戒水位訂定委辦計畫成果尚未建立關聯性。本計畫主要目的係使河川警戒水位於防汛期間發揮其功效,並將相關資訊傳送各地方政府防災指揮中心,藉以降低淹水災害損失;另完成本署洪水預報作業系統(FEWS)參數檢定與驗證,支援QPESUMS網格降雨資料對流域流量系集模擬預報研究等。
英文摘要The project has four main research goals. The first is the review and establishment of river warning stages after the flood of this year, as the reference of the river warning stage announcement in next year. The second, six new water stations establish the river warning stages. The third, the build of the SOBEK hydrology and 1D hydraulic models provide to FEWS-TAIWAN forecasting platform interfacing. Finally, the warning stage of education and training and technology transfer. This year project results are summarized as follows: 1.According to the river warning stage of the central authority’s river analysis and review results are shown in summary Abstract Table 1. It can be served as the reference of the river warning stage announcement in next year. It is included 163 water stations that has been announced river warning stages, and 26 water stations no announcement, and 9 new water stations establish the river warning stages. 2.In the warning stage of the central authority’s drainage, using the measurement data and drainage warning stage analysis results of this year, the 1st degree warning stage are still applicable, and the relevant results and data are described in Chapter 4. 3.This project build the SOBEK hydrology and 1D hydraulic models of 24 central authority’s river and Tan-Shuie river that have passed calibration and validation processes. Through WRA’s working group, the two model outputs can be connected to the FEWS-TAIWAN forecasting platform. The forecasting platform and models can be used in flood forecasting during the next year. 4. To achieve the relevant technology transfer of review and establishment of warning stage for central authority’s river, we prepared the operation manual of the SOBEK hydrology and 1D hydraulic models for 10 River Management Office of WRA. One or more engineers of 10 River Management Office of WRA were trained model installation and operation of the hydrology and 1D hydraulic models. Beside, in 4th Nov. 2014 it is handle education and training courses, and invite the WRA, county and city governments related units, to explain the model of operation manual, and the establishment of river warning stages method to achieve the propose of technology transfer. 5. Establishment of river warning stage has its basic assumptions and limitations. As natural and human-induces environment change, it will result in the question of applicability of existing of the river warning stage. Therefore, revise the river warning stage timely can conform to demand of flood prevention.
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